 Newsletter Signup
Stay informed with the
NEW Casino City Times newsletter! Donald Catlin Archives
More Strategy Experts
|
Gaming Guru  Soft Doubling - Part 211 May 2008
Last month, in answer to my reader Thomas Moore inquiring about soft doubling, I indicated how to calculate dealer's final probabilities when the up card is a 6. In that article I gave a table listing the probabilities for dealer's final totals of 17 through 26. Since the hands 22 through 26 are all busted hands, we can add all of those probabilities and simply list it as bust. Here is the resulting table that we will use.
Recall that we are addressing the situation where the player's hand is a soft 18 and he is facing a dealer's 6. Assume that we have already determined that the player should stand on a hard 12 through 21 when facing a 6. Also let us assume that, using calculations such as those below, we know that we should stand on a soft 19, 20, and 21 when the hand consists of three or more cards. What about the soft 18? If we stand on it we get the following table for calculating expected return:
So, if we stand on our Ace-Seven versus the 6 we have a positive expected return of 0.2235. What if we hit the hand? We know that if we do hit the hand we will only hit it once. Let's look into this situation. Suppose we hit any soft 18 and draw an Ace. Our expected return in this situation can be calculated using the following table.
Let me do one more calculation so you get the idea. If we draw a 4 through 8, we end up with a stiff, a 12 through 16. In this case the only way to win is if the dealer busts. Hence:
I think you can check the rest of the expected returns for the various draws yourself using the above ideas. This results in the following calculation for overall expected return when drawing.
Because I used 13 times the card's probability in the calculation (to reduce round off error) the 2.3089 is 13 times larger than the correct expected return. Dividing by 13 we obtain 0.1776. This is also a positive expected return. Since our expected return by standing is 0.2235 and our expected return by hitting is 0.1776, the conclusion is that if our soft total of 18 contains three or more cards we should stand. However, if our soft 18 consists of two cards and we have the option of doubling, our expected return is 2 x 0.1776 or 0.3552 and this is a much better return than standing. So, Thomas, when you have a soft 18 versus the 6, you should stand on it unless it is an Ace-Seven hand, then you should double it. I hope this answers your question to me. If you get any guff from those ploppies that you mentioned in your email to me about this strategy, refer them to these two articles. I guarantee they won't understand them. Ignorance might be bliss (or obnoxious) but it's not profitable. See you all next month. Don Catlin can be reached at 711cat@comcast.net This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network, John Robison managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. Soft Doubling - Part 14 April 2008
I recently received an email from reader Thomas Moore:
It is hard for me to understand how doubling on an ace - x a dealer's 5 or 6 up card is the correct play, where x is a deuce through seven. Please help me understand this basic strategy play. Thanks.
I sent Thomas the following reply: This is ... (read more)
Questions from the mailbag8 March 2008
Over the past couple of months I've received several letters from my readers. Here are three such.
Somewhere I read about an expert(?) gambler that charts the craps table. Isn't this heresy for number guys like yourself? The dice or table cannot remember. So why does his method make sense, unless ... (read more)
A Blackjack Ruin Problem1 February 2008
Dear Don,
I am hopeless at mathematics but I understand at Blackjack I have a 43% chance of winning and a 49% chance of losing - that is a difference of 5% advantage to the casino.
I am guessing that perfect basic strategy, double downs and splits, are responsible for bringing the advantage to 0.5% - ... (read more)
The Pass LineI am sure that you are all familiar with the house advantages of the standard casino games: 5.28% for Roulette, 5.22% for Caribbean Stud, 2.85% for Let it Ride, 3.37% and 2.32% on the Ante/Play wager and the Pair Plus wager in Three Card Poker, and 1.41% for the Pass Line in Craps. These figures are regularly tossed around by gaming writers. ... (read more)Blackjack Tournament Play: What's Luck Got to Do With It?This past June I was in Las Vegas visiting with customers of mine and was staying at the Las Vegas Hilton. Ever since the Las Vegas Convention Center got rid of all the convenient (and free) parking I have been staying at the Hilton because of its close proximity to the convention center. ... (read more)Where Are Those Straight Flushes?I have a friend who is an avid 9/6 Jacks player. She knows how to play the game and I recently purchased Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker for her so that she could practice. In one of our conversations she remarked to me that she expected to see more Straight Flushes than actually occur and wanted my take on this. ... (read more)Video Poker Sure Isn't PokerI have several friends who are regulars in private Poker games in my region. Of these, a few make regular trips to Foxwoods Casino in Ledyard, Connecticut to play in the Poker games there. All of these pals have at one time or another tried to entice me to join one of their games or one of their Poker trips and I have always refused. ... (read more)Progressive Blackjack à la Wildhorse.reg { text-indent: 2em; } .eq { font-size: smaller; text-align: center; } .no { font-size: smaller; text-align: right; } Many of you are familiar with the Midnight Skulker, who writes articles on this site as well as for other gambling publications. Well, a few weekends ago the ole Skulker ... (read more) |
Donald Catlin |
