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Gaming Guru  Lottery Nonsense16 February 2013
By Donald Catlin One of my readers (John M.) recently wrote to me and pointed out that a guy who has won several lotteries has decided to write a book giving tips to players and was lucky enough to have landed an interview on Good Morning America. His name is Richard Lustig. John wondered about my reaction to his claims. From my past writing on the subject of lotteries my reaction was predictably skeptical. Nevertheless, given all the hoopla I decided I might buy the book and read it. First though, I did some internet searching to see what kinds of tips Mr. Lustig was handing out. Sadly, these were the same tips others before him had been purveying. So no, I didn’t buy his book. I decided that if Mr. Lustig believes the stuff he was saying on GMA then I would pass on his book. What sorts of tips? One of them is not to use quick picks. Here is a direct quote: “Every time you buy a quick pick the set of numbers is unique, which always puts you at the worst odds, 1 in 175 million.” Whether or not you use a quick pick or some other method to select you set of numbers the set is certainly unique so I’m not sure what the point is here. What I do know is that if you pick the numbers yourself you introduce a bias in the selection and this can cause a win to be shared with other players. I discussed this phenomenon in my December 2005 article Selling Dreams that is in the archives. There I give an example that occurred in Florida’s Fantasy Five game and is quite striking. Mr. Lustig believes that the proper strategy is to play the same numbers day after day. What numbers? Well, he hints at this method by pointing out that recent Powerball jackpots have numbers that sum up to totals between 104 and 176, not including the bonus number. This is the well known bell curve method of choosing numbers that is been touted by Gail Howard. I address this in my January 2004 article entitled Lottery Nonsense; the article is in the archives and explains the fallacy. Lustig recommends staying away from numbers that have come up before according to Fox 4 WFTX-TV. This is a version of the old maturity of chances doctrine and is a well-known gambling fallacy. The only way this can be good advice is if lottery trials are not independent events and I can assure you that they are. The Multi-State Lottery Association goes to great lengths to make sure that their trials are independent. If this was not the case the lottery could be beaten; the Association is doing quite well. If the above is not enough to convince you to not invest in lottery schemes then go right ahead and best of luck to you. You have my opinion on the matter and I have taken my own advice. See you in a couple of months. Don Catlin can be reached at 711cat@comcast.net This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at fscobe@optonline.net. Riding the Waves of Winning8 December 2012
I recently received the following email from one of my readers named James: I play ten hands and if they are over 50% successful, I increase my single unit to three for the following ten rounds. When the twenty hands are completed I repeat the procedure. Having played 6000 hands, I have a moderate increase amounting to 1.26 units per twenty hands. ... (read more)
Counting the Pass Line And Cows22 September 2012
I recently received a letter from Peter Chao, one of my readers. Here is part of Peter’s letter:
“Instead, could we say [in craps] that there are two separate bets based on an event (setting the point): Pre-Point Bet of $10 and Post-Point of $40-$60 (depending on point)? Both have a Pass Line component, and Post-Point adds the odds. ... (read more)
A Blackjack Question?5 August 2012
I recently received an email from one of my readers, Amy, posing a question about Blackjack. Here is Amy's email:
Dear Sir,
My name is Amy, and I only ever play blackjack, basic strategy, but not card counting. My question is, regardless how long I have to play … minutes or hours … what are my ... (read more)
The Pass LineI am sure that you are all familiar with the house advantages of the standard casino games: 5.28% for Roulette, 5.22% for Caribbean Stud, 2.85% for Let it Ride, 3.37% and 2.32% on the Ante/Play wager and the Pair Plus wager in Three Card Poker, and 1.41% for the Pass Line in Craps. These figures are regularly tossed around by gaming writers. ... (read more)Blackjack Tournament Play: What's Luck Got to Do With It?This past June I was in Las Vegas visiting with customers of mine and was staying at the Las Vegas Hilton. Ever since the Las Vegas Convention Center got rid of all the convenient (and free) parking I have been staying at the Hilton because of its close proximity to the convention center. ... (read more)Where Are Those Straight Flushes?I have a friend who is an avid 9/6 Jacks player. She knows how to play the game and I recently purchased Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker for her so that she could practice. In one of our conversations she remarked to me that she expected to see more Straight Flushes than actually occur and wanted my take on this. ... (read more)Video Poker Sure Isn't PokerI have several friends who are regulars in private Poker games in my region. Of these, a few make regular trips to Foxwoods Casino in Ledyard, Connecticut to play in the Poker games there. All of these pals have at one time or another tried to entice me to join one of their games or one of their Poker trips and I have always refused. ... (read more)Progressive Blackjack à la Wildhorse.reg { text-indent: 2em; } .eq { font-size: smaller; text-align: center; } .no { font-size: smaller; text-align: right; } Many of you are familiar with the Midnight Skulker, who writes articles on this site as well as for other gambling publications. Well, a few weekends ago the ole Skulker ... (read more) |
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